**dates of major exams** (see the Schedule for dates of
quizzes):

M1: meeting 10 of the 30: | Tue, 15-Feb-2005, and Wed, 16-Feb-2005. |

M2: meeting 17: | Thu, 10-Mar, and Mon, 21-Mar (1st day back). |

M3: meeting 24: | Tue, 12-Apr, and Wed, 13-Apr. |

M4: final exam: | Mon 10:45-1:15, 9-May, and Thu 1:30-4:00, 12-May. |

**schedule of the term -- syllabus / contents of the
distributed class notes
**(Modifications may be made for tornado alerts, outages of electricity, etc.)

--- --- --- meeting 1: | 12-Jan-2005, a Wednesday, and 13-Jan-2004, a Thursday |

survey of the course

terms “fair coin”, “fair die”, “pair of fair dice”

terms “elementary event”, “the universe”, “an event”

meaning of “and”, “or”, and “not”

practical meaning of probability and the pursuit of a rigorous definition

pair-of-dice diagrams

introduction to probability, including conditional probability

very simple calculator use

terms “plus”, “sum”, “minus”, “times”, “product”, “square of”, “square root of”

test your intuition : birthday paradox

some basic problems relating to the first meeting (Everyone should do these.)

some more problems (Most people need more practice than the above problems
afford.)

two sample quiz Q01’s for after you’ve studied the material

(The sample quizzes should be taken after you have learned all that you intend
to learn.

The sample quizzes help you practice what you have already learned. Take them
under test

conditions -- closed book and notes, calculator at hand, no peeking at the
solutions, ten

uninterrupted minutes.

--- --- --- meeting 2: | Tue, 18-Jan, and Wed, 19-Jan <Mon is Day> |

AND, OR, NOT; intersection, union, complement

Venn diagrams for counting

tree diagrams for counting

counting using rules involving AND

counting using rules involving OR

what “dealing a hand from a standard deck” means

precedence in expressions : PEMDAS

quiz Q01 relating to material of meeting 1 (the last ten minutes of class)

some basic problems relating to this meeting (minimal practice for at home)

some more problems (more practice)

sample quiz Q02 for after you have finished your homework on this material

--- --- --- meeting 3: | Thu, 20-Jan, and Mon, 24-Jan |

permutations and combinations

more on calculator use

five percent of a dollar is $ .05 is a nickle; 50 % is .50 is a half.

the multiplication law of probability for dealing with AND

tree diagram for probability

the addition law of probability for dealing with OR

Venn diagrams for probability

the subtraction law of probability for dealing with NOT

the division law form of the multiplication law

independence

test your intuition : true positive with a rare disease

quiz Q02 on the material of meetings 1 and 2 (mostly 2). last 10 minutes of
class.

some basic problems relating to this meeting (minimal practice for at home)

some more problems (more practice)

sample quiz Q03 which is mostly on today’s meeting

--- --- --- meeting 4: | Tue, 25-Jan, and Wed, 26-Jan |

binomial probability

expected value, population mean

quiz Q03. last 10 minutes of class.

some basic problems relating to this meeting (minimal practice for at home)

some more problems (more practice)

sample quiz Q04 which is mostly on today’s meeting

--- --- --- meeting 5: | Thu, 27-Jan, and Mon, 31-Jan |

decision theory

probability problems requiring more thinking

test your intuition: non-transitive dice

quiz Q04. last 10 minutes of class.

some basic problems relating to this meeting (minimal practice for at home)

some more problems (more practice)

sample quiz Q05 which is mostly on today’s meeting

--- --- --- meeting 6: | Tue, 1-Feb, and Wed, 2-Feb |

other ways of describing probabilities -- 1/6 is 1 out of
6 is 5:1 against is 1:5 for

Bayes’ theorem

quiz Q05. last 10 minutes of class.

some basic problems relating to this meeting (minimal practice for at home)

some more problems (more practice)

sample quiz Q06 which is mostly on today’s meeting

--- --- --- meeting 7: | Thu, 3-Feb, and Mon, 7-Feb |

(You have seen all the material of the first exam (M1) and
should have done your homework on Bayes’ Theorem by this meeting. After today’s
meeting, you should

let yourself get really on top of this material we’ve done so far. You should be
ready to take M1 next meeting even though it is not until meeting 10.)

using the WebCT site for our course

contents of the current CHANCE NEWSLETTER

how you will give a report from the CHANCE NEWSLETTER archives

various other internet sites of interest

another look at decision theory

quiz Q06. last 10 minutes of class.

practice problems from the first six meetings.

first practice M1

(Give yourself the first practice M1 under test conditions -- 75 minutes, closed
book and notes, no peeking at solutions, no interruptions. When finished, look
and the solution sheet. If you like you can grade yourself and see what you
would have made had this been the real thing. This practice test will be turned
in at the start of M1 and earns a hundred points as a take-home quiz grade (Q07)
even if you just sign your name. (This is to avoid the waste of time of some
people copying from the solution sheet to the test.))

--- --- --- meeting 8: | Tue, 8-Feb, and Wed, 9-Feb |

use of the spreadsheet Excel

simulation of probability experiments

hodgepodge of problems

second practice M1

(You might want to give yourself the second practice M1. Really try to get a
good night’s rest before each major exam.)

--- --- --- meeting 9: | Thu, 10-Feb, and Mon, 14-Feb |

group work for M1

(I will copy various problems to distribute. You will break into groups of two
or three or maybe four and work on the problems. I’ll walk around and look over
your shoulders and help with sticking points. From time to time, some of you
will present solutions. Many students like group work -- give it a try. There
are many reasons for group work -- one is that is how you are expected to work
in the real world. Another is that those who understand the material strengthen
their understanding while providing help to those that do not understand; and
those that do not understand receive more individual attention. If this really
is not your cup of tea, you don’t have to come to this meeting; however, it
would be good to give it a shot.)

--- --- --- meeting 10: | Tue, 15-Feb, and Wed, 16-Feb |

M1 = full period closed book and notes first major exam.
<---------------------------

(If you use additional paper, scrap or otherwise, turn it in with your exam.

You can leave when you are finished. Borrow my calculator if yours dies.)